Across assets, oil still the one focus for investors.
Heidi
Brendan Fagan
One thing is oil. Everything second derivative of oil. Oil causing dollar squeeze, permeating risk spectrum; stocks don't like it.
Does this reinforce idea dollar can't be replaced?
April
Brendan Fagan
Sell America narrative 2025/post-Liberation Day proved myth. Hedge America didn't work at margin. Dollar at heart of global financial system; petrodollar here to stay. Dollar at heart of everything, not changing soon.
Payrolls day; focus shifted away. Does Fed still weigh in or all geopolitics until certainty?
Heidi
Brendan Fagan
Payrolls snuck up; any other week most important. Fed still matters, but reaction function tilted towards large move in break-evens back above 3%. What Fed does, especially after Kevin Warsh takes helm, still matters.
What seeing in tech stocks with headwinds from chip export permit requirements?
April
Brendan Fagan
Tech sector can't catch a break or get out of its own way. 24hrs ago optimistic after Broadcom strong guide. That fell through with self-imposed hurdle. Bloomberg index of Mag Seven names trading at bottom end of range. Concerning how limp they're trading; can't seem to get out of own way. Concern for broader market.