2.8% productivity growth on 10/20/30yr basis really good number. Companies invest in productivity, deliver technology. Caught short workers 3yrs ago, invested in new processes, staffing, automation; results today hold down inflation, allow margin maintenance when input costs rise.

No sense how long takes or implications. Watch oil prices; US no longer net importer but price at pump matters for sentiment, crowding out spending. Watching pump prices jumped up last week. No one knows short-term or long-term.

Go meeting by meeting, see what we see. Gas prices up is inflationary. Textbook: look through short-term shock, don't look through long-term shock. That's assessment Open Market Committee will have to make.

See how evolves. Conversations with businesses fall suggest pricing power very limited. Consumers exhausted by inflation, affordability. People pushing back: not purchasing, private label, trade down, repairing not replacing. Sense we're on backside of inflationary period, head back to normal numbers in fall, absent government shutdown.