States the world has changed since September, citing Oracle's stock being down over 50% from its high after a monster quarter. Notes the $100B was a non-binding letter of intent and NVIDIA has signaled the deal might not happen. Concludes this shows NVIDIA thinks differently about OpenAI now.

Argues the Google ecosystem of companies is up ~25% since Oct 29, while the OpenAI ecosystem is down ~25%. Believes Google will ultimately win in consumer AI and Anthropic in enterprise AI, leaving OpenAI 'in trouble' and 'wedged between the two of them.'

Predicts OpenAI will raise the $100B due to many companies having a vested interest, but longer-term does not think they will be one of the top 1-3 winners in AI.

States 'a tons riding on it,' citing $1.4T in commitments over 8 years and losses through 2029 with worsening burns. Notes the stock market has been adapting since late October. Uses Oracle's stock move (up then down after announcing a capital raise) as an example of the market reassessing exposure to OpenAI.