Broad derisking in software due to headlines; near-term earnings good but long-term profitability questions terminal multiple, causing significant price impact.

Terminal multiple estimated down from ~28-30 to 24-25, impacting stocks; market sells all software on bad headlines despite uncertainty 3-4 years out.

Traditional and alternative energy back; cybersecurity opportunities; software companies stopping hiring causing labor market disruption; defensive trades like high-grade debt over high-yield have value.

AI boom benefits severely undercut by rising commodity prices, inflation, and tariffs; gas prices above $83/barrel wipe out tax benefits for public.

President regains tariff authority in ~8 weeks; tariffs could rise to 15-40% after election, adding significant risk.

Administration not hiking tariffs now due to inability to pass affordability legislation; tariff risk very real after election.

Most trade deals not codified; tariff rates scheduled to rise significantly; hopes tariffs not imposed before election.

Peace talks benefit cyclical side but long end of oil curve elevated; pressure on consumer from energy prices; industrials tied to AI build-out can absorb higher costs.

Differentiation within industrials important; focus on secular trends over short-term consumption.

Disruption to Strait of Hormuz likely permanent, keeping prices elevated; uneven demand destruction in Asia; stockpiles last 30-45 days.

Focus should be on addressing supply disruption and reopening strait, not just ceasefire announcements.