Oil prices will be higher for longer until there's a clear ceasefire allowing ships through Strait of Hormuz

Strait has been shut for over a month, 10+ million barrels/day production shut in, Gulf producers have no storage left and can't move oil

Yes, this indicates physical market tightness - dated Brent above $84/barrel and Saudi Aramco's $19.5 premium show big gap between physical and paper markets

Either ceasefire eases tightness and physical moves toward forward month ($109), or Strait remains shut and paper markets move toward physical prices

Long-term consequence will be producers diversifying away from Strait - Saudi Arabia already using East-West pipeline (7M bpd), UAE has smaller capacity, but Kuwait/Qatar/Bahrain lack options

US exporters insulated short-term but oil markets are global - Middle East price rises will eventually push up US/European prices, hurting consumers and causing higher inflation

US LNG exporters benefit from higher prices, but consumers face broader economic impact from global oil price increases