This might be some short term euphoria. The IEA says it would take about two years to get back to normal, especially for LNG markets. About 80 oil and gas facilities damaged in the region, there's a backlog.

We've seen a lot of mixed messaging on whether negotiations are even going to continue. Iran says it will open the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump says he'll continue the blockade. It's really unclear what's going to happen. Right now we're in a very fragile ceasefire.

A lot of details to be worked out on enrichment. There are a lot of spoilers and ways Iran could continue to make money through negotiations. Iran now knows it has leverage over the global economy. A lot can go wrong.

This is the biggest geopolitical loss of this entire war. Trump says Iran will never close the Strait again, but the reason Iran closed it was because the US and Israel went to war with Iran. Now it knows it has that leverage. A real geopolitical loss.

Iranian negotiators are sophisticated, know the nuclear program details, but are closer to IRGC and more extreme elements. The focus should be on who is on the US side, as it's unclear they have the detail to hammer out a real agreement that prevents a return to war or a freeze on the global economy.

Iranians know how to manipulate details so Trump can save face superficially. Concerned the original problem - Iran's nuclear weapons program - won't be solved. The US might want a superficial agreement to lower gasoline prices for midterm elections.

This will alter many countries' contingency plans. We'll see increasing coalitions of the willing, some excluding the US. This doesn't bode well for the US as a superpower. Countries will work on alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. This is not a sign of 'deal done, back to normal'.