Gradual structural and cyclical improvement in Chinese renminbi outlook leading to stronger currency.

Market waiting for new trigger; structurally bearish dollar theme has come and gone with temporary geopolitical/tariff headlines fading quickly.

Market needs cyclical narrative on dollar to turn for weaker dollar story to unfold in second half of year, wary of repeating last year's pattern where expected US economic turn didn't materialize.

Dollar not weakening because US economy isn't really weakening that much; Q4 GDP was distorted, Q1 rebound expected, PMIs don't show economy falling off cliff.

As long as US economy remains resilient, limits how negative you can be on dollar purely on structural drivers since structural story already priced in.

Comfort zone is 1-3 months, likes Aussie dollar as clear winner with domestic and international drivers including RBA validation and as proxy for Chinese yuan strength.