Expect policy-lite statement with focus on OBR forecasts. Market watching for vulnerabilities in UK public finances after bond sell-off. Chancellor had £22B windfall from tax receipts, DMO may slash gilt issuance.

Middle East conflict complicates timing of BOE rate cuts - markets now not expecting second cut this month due to Iran events and inflation risks.

Bank of England governor is swing voter - market reappraising that Andrew Bailey will play for time, maybe look to April for first cut. North Sea oil meeting could signal policy response to energy prices.

World has become more uncertain with unfolding conflict in Iran and Middle East. Must chart course through uncertainty to secure economy against shocks.

OBR forecasts show inflation falling faster than autumn forecast, but rising energy prices put upward pressure on inflation. Growth forecast: 1.1% in 2026, 1.6% in 2027-28, 1.5% in 2029-30.

Headroom against stability rule increased from £21.7B to £23.6B. Borrowing to fall by nearly £18B compared to autumn. Debt lower in every year of forecast.

If Straits of Hormuz seriously closed, that's very disrupted oil market. UK household sector insulated until July when energy price cap revised, but summer months critical for inflation expectations.

Delayed effect for energy costs - petrol prices will rise immediately, new price cap will be higher than built into forecasts. Several months before potential government intervention.

Higher gilt issuance (£252B vs £245B estimate) reflects lower growth in first year of forecast. Any line of sight to energy bailout could lead to aggressive gilt selling.

Traders pared bets on BOE cuts - only one now priced due to higher energy prices. OBR forecasts may already be out of date due to Middle East conflict.