We think Brent prices can hit $70 in the next few days and WTI up to around $66-67.
Max Layton
Geopolitical risk premium has risen by around $5 over last few days and can rise at least another $5 over next few days, especially with military action or continued protests.
What are people anticipating for supply disruptions from Iran?
Host
Max Layton
No obvious signs of disruption currently - it's all premium. Last year Brent went from low 60s to $77 with practically no disruption, a $15-16 move on geopolitical risk premium.
What's your take on supply situation now and for remainder of year?
Host
Max Layton
Shifted from bearish ($80 down to $60) to above consensus neutral/very slightly bearish view - one of most bullish views on crude oil.
Max Layton
Oil is in a 'show me' moment - show me the surplus. Most surplus absorbed by China stockpiling and impacted by supply disruption.
Max Layton
Geopolitical risk premium can completely collapse with certainty around Iran or Russia-Ukraine deal.