CPI report is good news with core inflation at lowest reading of cycle. However, monthly core came in hot last two months, showing underlying inflationary pressures. Bond market reacted positively (2yr & 10yr yields down). Doesn't change near-term Fed outlook - needs more data for hawkish members. Expects rate cuts beginning summer, Fed on hold for next few meetings.

Agrees with Colin - reports put Fed in hold mode probably into summer. Unlikely to move before March meeting without big data change. Notes political dynamics with Kevin Warsh nomination and Powell's term ending mid-May. Expects no big changes until after Powell transition.

Next catalysts: economic growth data, consumer spending, tax refund season. Does NOT think 10-year yield trend will continue meaningfully lower (below 4% to ~3.75%). Need slowdown/recession (not base case). Factors keeping yields elevated: inflation still high, budget/debt supply concerns, rising global yields (Japan), potential capital flows away from US. Meaningful move lower requires much slower growth.