Economic activity expanding at moderate pace. Consumer spending solid, business investment expanding, housing weak. Government shutdown weighed on current quarter but offset by next quarter growth. Median GDP projections: 1.7% this year, 2.3% next year.

Committee lowered federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.5-3.75%. Near-term risks: inflation tilted upside, employment tilted downside. No risk-free path. Tariff effects seen as short-lived, one-time price level shift. Balance of risks has shifted with rising employment downside risks.

Framework calls for balanced approach. Cut 75bps over last three meetings. Further normalization should stabilize labor market while allowing inflation to resume downward trend toward 2% after tariff effects pass.

Policy stance now within range of plausible neutral estimates, well positioned to determine additional adjustments based on data, outlook, and risk balance. Median participant projects fed funds rate 3.4% end 2026, 3.1% end 2027.

Initiating $40B Treasury bill purchases to maintain ample reserves. Eliminated aggregate limit on standing repo operations to support monetary policy implementation and smooth market functioning.

We'll get data between now and January meeting that will factor into thinking. Held rates at 5.4% for over a year when inflation high and labor market solid. Over summer 2024, inflation came down and labor market showed real weakness.

When risks to dual mandate become more equal, framework says move from stance favoring one goal to more balanced, neutral setting. Cut 175bps total. Now well positioned to wait and see how economy evolves.

Unusual persistent tension between two parts of mandate. All FOMC members agree inflation too high and labor market softened with further risk. Differences are in weighting risks and forecasts. Discussions thoughtful with strong views.

Decision today had 9 out of 12 support - fairly broad but not normal unanimous situation. Effects of 75bps cuts will only begin coming in. Well positioned to wait for economy evolution.

Need careful assessment of household survey data due to technical collection issues - data may be distorted because not collected in October and half of November. Will look at CPI and household survey carefully.

Tariff inflation: announcement then takes months for full effect through shipping. If no new tariff announcements, goods inflation should peak in first quarter of next year - couple tenths or less. Then should start coming down in back half of next year.

Committed to 2% inflation and will deliver. Complicated situation with labor market under pressure, job creation may be negative, worker supply down. Labor market has significant downside risks.

Without tariffs, inflation in low 2s. Tariffs causing most overshoot, likely one-time price increase. Job is to ensure it stays one-time. No risk-free path with risks to both sides.

When inflation high and labor market strong, could focus entirely on inflation. Now different with risks to both. Doing best to support economic activity while ensuring inflation lands around 2% when tariff effects pass.

When inflation was high and labor market strong, could focus entirely on inflation; now risks to both sides; no risk-free path; doing best to support activity while ensuring inflation lands around 2% when tariff effects pass.