The war in Iran will create an asymmetric impact on European and Asian markets versus the US. The US has plenty of oil and gas—it's a price shock, not a supply shock. Europe and Asia face potential supply shortfalls affecting manufacturing capabilities and margins.

Uncertainty is higher, which discourages firms from making investments and will weigh on growth. Higher gas prices will hit the consumer, forcing reallocation of spending.

Our portfolio is positioned for higher geopolitical risk: overweight energy, income-oriented stocks less vulnerable to cycles (high-dividend REITs, financials), and defensive consumer plays like TJ Maxx. We also keep 25% in higher growth opportunities like Nvidia, Amazon, Palo Alto.