Asking if pre-war inflation data still matters given current oil shock.
Carol Massar
Yelena Shulyatyeva
Tariff pass-through accelerating into consumer prices for furniture, apparel; will continue alongside oil price pressures.
Yelena Shulyatyeva
PCE prices will accelerate due to oil supply shock; Fed will probably stay on hold.
Yelena Shulyatyeva
If crisis short-lived: affects prices more than production; inflation rises 0.3%, GDP growth lowers 0.1%.
Asking about stagflation worries given jobs data and growth.
Carol Massar
Yelena Shulyatyeva
Stagflation sense definitely in air but far from full-blown; requires inflation expectations surge.