Gasoline prices up 20 cents in 2 days (biggest jump in 21 years), could add 0.2-0.3% to headline CPI. Makes it difficult for Fed to talk about cutting rates.

Fed focuses on PCE, which is rising (core PCE expected at 3.1% vs CPI at 2.5%). Fed officials are concerned about PCE going up, plus energy inflation.

OER decline depressing CPI, creating divergence with PCE that Fed watches closely.

Bond sell-off could go much further. Depends on oil infrastructure damage. If no more damage and oil doesn't go much higher, bonds could sell off some more.

We're at mercy of headlines about oil infrastructure. If only shipping disruption (no ship damage), oil could settle and bond yields could start back up. Yields were 4.20-4.30% recently.

Fed on hold longer due to disruption accelerates credit stress shakeout in highly levered companies (BDCs) that need lower rates.

If rates meander higher, puts more stress on them. Shakeout could be more severe than AI moat concerns for software companies.

Private fund gating is a feature, not a bug, of illiquid assets priced quarterly. Not a systemic crisis - over 100 funds gated in 15 years without systemic problems.

Higher returns require taking more risk, including gating risk. Problem for those funds/investors but not necessarily systemic.

Gating is a feature. Private funds priced quarterly, not liquid. Fund controls values/redemptions, not like ETF. If too much demand to exit, gating is part of feature. Higher returns require taking risk of gating.