Gasoline price surge (biggest 2-day jump in 21 years) could add 0.2-0.3% to headline CPI. Everything looking north on inflation, making it hard for Fed to ignore numbers and talk cuts.

Fed focused on PCE, which is going north (core PCE expected at 3.1% vs CPI 2.5%). OER depressing CPI. Fed officials (like Kashkari) concerned about rising PCE, now plus energy. Market looking at CPI may be less concerned.

Initial bond rally (safe haven) on Iran war reversed to sell-off on inflationary threat. Bond sell-off could go a lot further. Depends on oil infrastructure damage. If no more damage, bonds could sell off more. At mercy of headlines. If just shipping disruption, oil could settle and bond yields could start back up (were 4.20-4.30% recently).

Fed on hold longer due to disruption accelerates credit stress shakeout. BDCs and levered companies need lower rates. If rates meander higher, more stress, shakeout more severe.

Blue Owl also had skin in game. Everyone scrambling. In bigger picture, gating in private funds common since 2009 (Citadel, Brexit property funds, COVID, Blackstone RE). Over 100 funds gated in 15 years, none caused systemic crisis. Problem for those funds/investors, not systemic. This instance likely not different.

Gating is a feature. Private funds priced quarterly, not liquid. Fund controls values/redemptions, not like ETF. If too much demand to exit, gating is part of feature. Higher returns require taking risk of gating.