• Mr. Chairman, can you characterize the meeting in terms of, you said strongly differing views? Was this a close call this cut or was it a close call maybe the other way because you had the sense on both sides?
    Steve Leisman
  • Jerome Powell
    I was referring to the discussion about December. We had two dissents, one for a 50 basis point cut and one for no cut. There was a strong solid vote in favor of this cut. The strongly differing views were really about the future—forecasting stronger economic activity, with some forecasters raising economic growth forecasts materially. The labor market is not clearly declining quickly, maybe gradually cooling. People have different forecasts, expectations, and risk tolerance.
  • Just to follow up on the balance sheet, if you stop the runoff now, does that mean you will add assets sometime next year so the balance sheet doesn't shrink as a percent of GDP and become a tightening factor?
    Steve Leisman
  • Jerome Powell
    On December 1, the size of the balance sheet is frozen; as mortgage-backed securities mature we will reinvest in Treasury bills leading to a shorter duration balance sheet. If the size remains frozen, non-reserve liabilities like currency grow organically, leading to further shrinkage in reserves, which have to remain ample. At some point, reserves will need to grow gradually with the banking system and economy size. We'll be adding reserves eventually. There is also discussion about moving the balance sheet to have a duration closer to outstanding Treasury securities. This will take a long time and move gradually. These changes are not expected to noticeably affect market conditions.
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