The AI story has become more selective. We're still positive, seeing nearly $700B in hyperscaler CapEx this year. We focus on semiconductors, semi-cap equipment, networking, and power-constrained data centers, avoiding areas where monetization isn't yet clear.

Combined with a still strong economy, this is why the market is rallying.

We advise clients to re-evaluate concentrated positions. Capital flows could go to these IPOs, and there's talk of higher retail allocation. We focus on the equal-weighted S&P 500 over the market-cap weighted because it will have an impact. We help clients manage concentrated positions, particularly in tech.

The impact on economic growth will be less than 50 basis points. We were looking for above-trend GDP growth, now closer to trend-line. The consumer is in pretty good condition, and the wealth effect from markets at all-time highs helps. Historically, only when gasoline prices average above $5 and stay there do you see a pullback in consumer spending.

We increased our Brent oil price target. We think it will average about $100 by the end of June and $90 by year-end. This is higher than before the crisis due to the need to rebuild reserves and potential hoarding. Even when the Strait reopens, it will take 3-5 months for full resumption. The American consumer has cash to weather this, helped by tax returns.

We expect the Strait to reopen by the end of the quarter (May/June).