Questions whether Iran's new leadership has any desire to negotiate with the U.S., given historical context.
speaker1
Michael Froman
Expects Iran's new leader to be another radical. Notes the U.S. has military/political objectives but Iran always has a vote in ending conflict and can retaliate on its own terms.
Asks about the flashpoint of the U.S. potentially seizing Iran's enrichment program.
speaker1
Michael Froman
Explains the threat of 450kg of 60% enriched uranium, stating removing it would require significant ground forces, a major escalation.
Asks for a reliable read on how depleted Iran's strike capacity (drones, missiles) is.
speaker5
Michael Froman
Confirms U.S./Israeli strikes greatly depleted Iran's capability, with attacks down ~90%, but lacks a clear sense of how much arsenal remains.
Questions if Iran understands the U.S. pain threshold, noting the admin is trying to ease oil prices that haven't spiked as much as expected given Strait of Hormuz and production issues.
speaker1
Michael Froman
States oil prices went up to almost $120, back to ~$90 (still +45% YTD). Warns that events in Strait of Hormuz or production shut-ins could lead to higher oil prices.
Asks if U.S. and Israel are aligned on war objectives.
speaker5
Michael Froman
States objectives don't fully overlap: U.S. aims to curb Iranian external power; Israel has additional goals around regime change/destruction.