President Trump says the war is already won. Is the US definition of winning the same as Israel's?
Kailey Leinz
Michael Oren
Israel's goals are specific: prevent Iran's nuclear program, deny ballistic missile capability, and stop support for terrorist proxies. The US originally shared these goals, but the key issue is the 'day after.' Iran's conditions for ceasefire—US reparations and guarantees—show they don't believe they are defeated.
How will we know the war is won?
Joe Mathieu
Michael Oren
Victory is either Iran renouncing missile production and terror support, or a popular uprising/coup within the regime. Achieving this requires a long-term, Cold War-like steadfastness, not a quick military conclusion.
With the new Supreme Leader in power, is it acceptable for him to remain if Israel's objectives aren't met?
Kailey Leinz
Michael Oren
The person is less important than the position. If the new leader maintains the goal of destroying Israel, he remains an enemy and legitimate target. A change in regime DNA is almost impossible.
US intelligence says the Iranian regime is intact and not at risk. Can that dynamic change without ground troops?
Joe Mathieu
Michael Oren
Yes, but it's long-term. After destroying Iran's military infrastructure, a punishing naval blockade could cut off oil exports and imports, causing the regime to wither over a protracted period, leading to overthrow from within.
What about the conflict with Hezbollah in the north?
Kailey Leinz
Michael Oren
Northern Israel is becoming uninhabitable due to rocket attacks. Even if the US seeks a ceasefire with Iran, Israel must continue its campaign against Hezbollah until it is decisively defeated and Lebanese government control is restored.
What is your estimate for the duration of this conflict?
Kailey Leinz
Michael Oren
For Israel, there is no choice; we are resilient and in it for the long haul. For the US, if the war ends with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and humbling oil producers and NATO, it will have far-reaching ramifications for American security. Iran will rebuild and threaten the US more imminently later. The time to address the threat is now.