War will cause inflationary pressures, higher interest rates longer, hit farmers and airlines, impact deficit. If not extended, US will weather it better than anyone. Biggest risk is global shock spilling over.

Lists affected areas: jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, petrochemicals, military spending, deficit, dollar.

More sovereign debt globally and diverse economic performance make coordination difficult. Important for US to talk with China and others to have basis to coordinate in crisis.

Highlights US strong, China weak, different monetary policies.

Relationship is fraught, strategic economic competitor and military adversary, but economies deeply linked creating stability. Neither can afford trade war. Period of mutually assured economic disruption results in stability due to high costs of escalation.

Predicts upcoming summit will focus on preserving stability, implementing existing agreements, monitoring trade, not big breakthroughs.

Deficit is $1 trillion, on path to $3 trillion by 2035, unsustainable and threatens economic well-being and national security. Need to stop digging, raise revenues by closing tax loopholes, deal with entitlements.

Congress doesn't act until immediate crisis.

Doubts it, due to many other issues (wars, AI, environment), but should not forget deficit.

Short term, dollar strengthened as safe haven. Long term, adds to deficit posing risk. Fed independence crucial for confidence.

Issues raised, but Kevin Warsh meets tests. Transition from Powell important. Warsh won't have easy job.

We don't know the risk until we go through a credit cycle. Some chance it could be better as private equity holds distressed assets, unlike regulated banks that sell. But it's contagious and can spread.

Ends on positive note about US economy strength.