Outlook depends on how long Strait of Hormuz is closed. If over by end-May, avoid worst but still have difficulties.

100+ oil tankers and 11 LNG tankers would provide initial comfort. But >80 energy facilities damaged, over 1/3 severely. Returning to pre-war production levels will take time, up to 2 years for big chunk, some LNG terminals longer. Misleading to think immediate return.

We should be prepared for volatile energy markets for some time.

Serious implications for global economy, more conservative than presented growth rates. Biggest problem for energy-importing emerging/developing countries. Could also raise food prices via fertilizer disruption.

Highlights vulnerability of countries with weaker currencies and financial muscles.

Seeing tendency to use more coal instead of gas, push for renewables and nuclear.

Russia is profiting a lot. Oil revenues doubled Feb-Mar due to higher prices and increased exports from sanction relaxation. Has financial and geopolitical significance.

Major economic and reputational challenge. Iraq particularly vulnerable: 90% gov revenue from oil, exports down two-thirds, threatening salaries, pensions, and fragile political stability.

Contrasts with Saudi Arabia's greater financial capacity.

Global economy held hostage by 50km strait doesn't make sense. Another vulnerability: concentration of critical minerals mining/processing in one country. Need diversification.

Refers to China's dominance in critical minerals.