Market is getting past the initial reaction to geopolitical tensions. From a crude oil standpoint, the rest of the world is breaking hard with severe demand destruction, while the US is okay for now.

WTI is around $89/barrel, likely stuck between $80-$100. The high of $120 isn't as daring as the 2020 peak of $130.

This is a bear market that's much more likely to go down. The surplus of supply vs demand in US/Canada (8M barrels/day) will reach 10M by 2028 if prices don't fall.

The key thing that might drive prices down by year-end is the stock market dropping.

The narrative about Gulf supply (20% of world) is outdated - it's dropping to ~10% as Saudi Arabia finds alternative pipeline routes through Red Sea.

Price maker status has switched from the Gulf to Western Hemisphere (US, Canada, Venezuela, Argentina), which is pressuring prices.

Natural gas in 2022 led crude oil back down after spiking to $130, and the same pattern is repeating - natural gas was up 100% this year, now down almost 20%.

Natural gas has already done what I think crude oil is going to do.

With natural gas, corn, and soybeans peaking, this looks like a 'pump ready to dump' scenario, predicated on the wealth effect continuing in the US.

European gas prices aren't as high as 2022, but demand destruction is the real concern. High prices for gasoil/diesel globally force cuts to capital budgets and consumer spending.

The top 20% of wage earners haven't cut back yet because the stock market is still doing well.

As a commodity guy, I look at stock markets - industrial metals and even crude oil could push things lower.