Iran war likely temporary market impact; oil prices will be affected but markets will revert to pre-war anxieties; war important geopolitically but may not be enduring market problem.

From market view, Iran war might be less important than geopolitical view; market was fragile pre-war with credit anxiety; base case remains positive with GDP growth, inflation moving right direction, rate cuts coming, fiscal stimulus, and hyperscaler spending.

We haven't had a reckoning since 2008; lack of discipline due to long period without forced selling/price discovery; low rates led to undisciplined investments; longer reckoning takes, worse it will be; eventually assets will pour into market at inconvenient time.

World less integrated than thought; examples from financial crisis and COVID show national priorities override global cooperation; supply chains and rare earths matter for national security; deglobalization trend acknowledged.