Natural gas experienced high volatility, breaking out from 450 to 550 before crashing back down to old resistance-turned-support, driven by shifting weather models and supply/demand repricing.

Silver reached a new all-time high overnight at 6214 on March contract, extending gains from supply tightness overseas and bets on Federal Reserve monetary easing.

Large percentage moves in silver/gold are less relevant at higher price levels; market is repricing itself higher structurally.

Gold pulling back to 4225, consolidating in $50 range, holding breath for Fed decision.

Stock markets slightly lower ahead of tricky Fed meeting; NASDAQ at 25,668, S&P 500 at 6845.

Markets pricing 89.9% likelihood of 25bps Fed rate cut today; key risk is Powell being very hawkish or dot plot showing only one cut in 2026.

Global monetary easing cycles ending: ECB pricing virtually no cuts (stagflation), Japan/Australia expected to hike rates.

10-year Treasury yields at ~4.2% with big breakout to upside; over 4.25% could cause equity market turbulence.

Today is a day to sit back, not take much risk, maybe trim positions or add protection ahead of Fed meeting.

Gold pulling back to 4225 overnight, resistance near 4250, down to 4215. Trading in $50 range, consolidating, holding breath for Fed.

Stock market slightly lower ahead of tricky Fed meeting. S&P 500 down 0.1bp at 6845, Nasdaq down same at 25668.

Oracle announcement watched for AI trade clues - implied move about 10%. Last Oracle print had 36% rally.

Markets anticipating 89.9% likelihood Fed reduces rates by 25bps today. Key times: 1pm CT for rate decision, 1:30pm CT for Powell.

Powell could pull rug on market if very hawkish - if dot plot only prices in one cut in 2026, things could be problematic.

Overseas: Traders pricing virtually no cuts from ECB (stagflation period). Japan expected to increase rates. Australia expected 2 hikes next year.

Other markets in hiking campaign while US is cutting. Dollar index at 9917, Euro at 11634.

10-year Treasury yields at 4.2% - big breakout to upside. Over 4.25% will probably see turbulence in equity markets.

VIX at 1768, Bitcoin at 92500, S&P gamma exposure positive. European stocks slipped with anticipated Fed cut - concerns about global easing cycles ending.

Asian equities trading narrow range, MSCI Asia-Pacific up 0.2%. ETF flows: sold gold (14k oz), sold silver (1.1M oz), bought platinum/palladium.

Palladium holdings increased 1k oz - 5th straight day. Palladium at 1530. Gold/silver ratio at 68:1 (observation, not actionable).

Today: sit back, don't take risk, eat popcorn, watch. Maybe trim positions, put protection ahead of Fed meeting.

Hope to see material breakdown in equity markets for long-term dip buying opportunity (but hope not a strategy).