Explains Strait of Hormuz handles 20M barrels/day (25% of global seaborne oil trade, 20% of consumption). Alternative pipelines limited (Saudi 5M bpd, UAE 1.8M bpd). Protracted closure would have material market repercussions but is highly unlikely due to economic interdependence.

States there would be immediate, significant market reaction with substantial risk premium increase, but reaction would subside depending on duration of closure.