Argues weak payrolls are not a big deal because the economy is at full employment; everyone has a job with decent wages.

States productivity is the key to growth without labor force expansion, and BNP Paribas is optimistic about AI's medium-term potential to sustain high productivity.

States it's undeniable the Fed does, citing their latest projections which penciled in higher growth on the back of observed multi-year productivity gains.

Confirms consistency, stating BNP was an early outlier calling for the Fed to do nothing in 2024, and expects the Fed to reinforce a neutral, wait-and-see stance at the next meeting.

Forecasts mid-to-high 2% GDP growth for the year (~2.6%) and an optimistic 3.7% for Q1, citing strong economic momentum.

Acknowledges the high oil price environment is a drag but highlights positive offsets like tax refunds from recent legislation, leading to overall resilience.

Explicitly states: 'If oil prices remain high for a long period of time, that's certainly going to question the... optimism. But for now, we continue to remain quite optimistic on the US economy.'

Forecasts inflation above 3% for 2024, above consensus, and notes persistent above-target inflation is part of why they expect no Fed rate cuts until 2026.