We are getting briefed on every nuance of the war daily. President Trump's timeline is four to six weeks and we're ahead of schedule. Tankers are starting to dribble through the straits, showing how little Iran has left.

We're very optimistic this will be over in the short run, then there'll be price repercussions for a few weeks as ships make it to refineries.

Futures markets have oil going down into the 60s by fall, down to the 50s past the year. There will be an incredible risk premium for ending Iranian terrorism.

The US economy is fundamentally strong with strong signs of productivity growth. Iran's strategy to hurt the US economy hasn't worked.

We want to make sure Iran cannot harm its neighbors and the US ever again. Once we've accomplished that goal and defanged them, President Trump will declare the war over.

Asian economies might pull back refined product exports to the West Coast to ensure enough energy for themselves. We're studying this closely but haven't seen disruptions yet.

If the Iran problem goes away, it will be helpful for China as well. Both countries want a stable world oil market.

Base case is President Trump's four to six week program, and we're in the third week ahead of schedule. If extended, it wouldn't really disrupt the US economy very much.

We've been finding other fertilizer sources successfully - established licenses for Venezuela, discussions with countries with potash reserves. We can minimize disruption.