Adds nuance: Technical resistance for 10-year yield is 4.25-4.30%, but actual resistance for equities is 4.50%. Notes yields have risen after every cut since September, but drama is overdone; we're only 9 bps above where we started cutting. The scary threshold for equities is still far away. Hawkish verbiage about 2026 matters more than today's rate decision.

Most important factor is return of elevated bond market volatility, like in 2022 (285 bps range). 2025 range is only 95 bps. Elevated volatility in 2026 would be a headwind. Believes hawkish cut is priced in. Bulls should be excited. Market is at top of range, eyes on 6920 (Oct 29 high). Will trade from long side to take out that high.

Agrees: expects a cut with hawkish verbiage, reflecting mixed views on committee. Thinks this is priced in. What isn't priced in: potential disappointing guidance from Oracle/Broadcom, which could cause selling pressure in hyperscalers.

Agrees consensus: verbiage and hawkish stance are priced in. Oracle/Broadcom earnings will be way more important for market influence this week than anything Fed says.

Confirms hawkish cut pricing in markets: probability of January cut down to 23%, next confident cut not until June. Bond market move is a term premium story, not inflation. Teases interview with Jeff Gundlach to understand his view on higher rates and Fed chair race.