Activity picture isn't worrisome. Inflation data is backward-looking; new developments (tariffs, energy prices) are more important for the outlook.

There will be winners (energy companies) and losers (consumers). Higher energy prices act as a tax on consumers, creating a headwind for spending.

Expects ~50k payroll gains to persist due to demographics. Layoffs remain low; focus on jobless claims, not announcements.

Inflation is going the wrong way (core PCE ~3.1%), while earlier employment fears aren't materializing. This explains why some Fed officials are advocating for a pause. Middle East conflict raises concern about energy price pass-through to core inflation.