Asking what happens at 10am Eastern when US blocks shipping to Iranian ports.
Jonathan Ferro
Norman Roule
Iran will test US fortitude by attempting to run tankers through Iranian waters and may target ships under US control or attack Gulf oil producers if their economy suffers.
Iranians will see what happens when tankers are instructed to continue despite US blockade.
Asking if blockade leads to full US naval escorts.
Jonathan Ferro
Norman Roule
Blockade may be broader step to test Iran short of hostilities; US demonstrated freedom of navigation with destroyers facing no Iranian resistance, potentially leading to convoy operations.
We're in early days and hostilities could well break out again.
Asking if Gulf partners will help with blockade.
Jonathan Ferro
Norman Roule
Gulf partners don't need to help militarily; best help is producing oil through other routes not relying on Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia and Emirates already doing this; Gulf leadership states no Iranian control of Strait can be tolerated.
Asking what's left to negotiate if Iran won't give up control of Strait or nuclear ambitions.
Jonathan Ferro
Norman Roule
Three key issues: nuclear constraints, missile program limitations, and regional adventurism by Quds Force.
Quds Force provided missiles to Houthis that shut down Red Sea; will continue providing technology to proxies.
Asking if Iran will involve Houthis in Red Sea for broader blockage.
Jonathan Ferro
Norman Roule
Possible but limited; US would treat Houthis harshly militarily; Saudis diplomatically constraining them; Houthis focused on Yemen internal matters and Israel issues.
Thus far a limited possibility but remains a possibility.
Asking how US would respond to Chinese vessel attempting to go through Strait.
Jonathan Ferro
Norman Roule
Intense diplomatic engagement asking China why turning regional conflict into international conflict.