Asks about market focus given Venezuela situation versus AI trade and memory pricing data.
speaker1
speaker2
Geopolitical events rarely impact markets unless they become protracted military conflicts affecting energy channels.
Questions if energy sector (3% of S&P 500) is due for a big move higher.
speaker1
speaker2
Energy sector rated neutral/market perform; too late to be significantly underweight.
Notes midterm election year historically leads to wider market swings due to political uncertainty.
speaker1
speaker2
Midterm election year has lowest win rate of the four-year cycle, with violently flat pattern (bigger swings around a generally flat market).
Questions if traditional patterns apply after strong market run, or if focus should be on AI trade/falling rates.
speaker1
speaker2
Market story is under the surface: significant churn/rotation and bear-market-level drawdowns at average member level not captured by cap-weighted indexes.