Market is gaining conviction that White House uses 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy. The US is experiencing a productivity boom with underlying positive narratives.

References that a year ago there were different policy concerns that have since faded, suggesting current geopolitical tensions may follow similar pattern.

Doesn't want to diminish conflict but notes that previous policy concerns have faded. Underlying US narrative is innovation, technology productivity, and strong earnings.

Points out that record margins and earnings usually dictate stock market performance, and $100 oil doesn't immediately translate to lower earnings.

Tools and platforms are faster and more accessible than ever. Multiples are down 18% since last fall. Absent a big economic recession (which they don't foresee), this is a good opportunity.

Mike correctly predicted a manageable drawdown. Market had 9% correction and has bottomed. Hard to see what new draconian information market would learn when motive is ceasefire.

Acknowledges possible retest but questions what new negative information could emerge.

Blockade might force global players (Asia, Europe) to pay more attention due to their greater oil exposure. Could be another 'escalate to de-escalate' instance.

Agrees lows are in. VIX has come off substantially from 30 level. Volatility usually peaks before markets bottom.

People aren't talking enough about continued affordability measures and stimulus ahead of midterms, which offsets higher gas prices. AI is the real story - beneficial to jobs and productivity.

References Morgan Stanley economic research looking at 200 years of innovation showing new technology cycles are beneficial.