Introduces Ted Oakley's September warning about a 'sobering up phase' and asks if current market weakness (tech sell-off, silver crash, high jobless claims) is a correction or the start of that process.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Agrees it's likely 'some of both' correction and economic reality. Notes a 'changing of the guard' in the market, weakening economy with high layoffs, and expects high volatility with potential 10-15% sell-offs this year.
Asks if weak consumer data is due to weather or a fundamental change in consumer strength.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Consumers are maximally stretched, using payday loans and buy-now-pay-later, creating a bifurcation Wall Street ignores.
Asks if the tech/AI sell-off is an 'ROI reality check' as companies shift from cash generators to capital-intensive investments.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Yes, the market is realizing that turning cash-generating tech companies into leveraged capital investment machines changes their complexion and appeal.
Asks what broad-based selling of both risk assets (tech) and insurance assets (gold, silver) signals about system liquidity.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Liquidity is probably okay. The metals sell-off is a classic sign of a top when retail investors finally pile in. The broader issue is a 'changing of the guard' away from index funds.
Asks where his portfolio is positioned.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Has reduced big tech (MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL) and rotated into defensive sectors: pharmaceuticals (BMY, GSK), high-dividend consumer staples (Campbell Soup), energy, and some biotech.
Asks for his view on gold and silver after the recent crash.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Took 'super profits,' selling 75% of silver and 25% of gold near the highs. Still holds some. Expects a 3-4 month consolidation after such a break, with prices potentially going lower than expected before rebounding later.
Asks if the volatility breaks the thesis for gold/silver miners.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
No, it's a short-term dislocation. The commodity cycle likely has more years to run. A drop to $3,800 gold would be a time to add back.
Asks about margin calls and if high debt will compress profit margins for big tech.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Margin is at an all-time high as a percent of market cap. The high debt taken on by big tech for AI capex cannot be good for future profit margins, which the market is starting to price.
Asks if holding ~45% cash is risky if the Fed is forced to pivot and re-inflate.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
No, because cash is in short-term treasuries (6-9 month duration), which would adjust with rates. Bigger risk is 'financial repression' (Fed buying bonds while inflating), which he sees as a 2027 risk, not 2026.
Asks for his energy thesis given potential demand shock from a weakening economy.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
The 'super oil glut' narrative is wrong. Energy is undervalued (only 2.8% of S&P). While oil could dip to $50-55, dividends of 6-7% allow you to wait for a major payoff over the next 2 years.
Asks how an investor should position given high volatility and global capital flow risks.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
Look for value in defensive, high-dividend stocks (pharma, staples) and energy. Keep liquidity in treasuries to deploy during shakeouts. Avoid long-duration bonds (20-30 year).
Asks for the biggest unpriced risk/opportunity for the second half of 2026.
Jeremy Safron
Ted Oakley
High volatility with 2-3 major tradable swings. The market may end the year only +6% but be down 25% at some point. Investors need 'clean powder' (cash) to buy these dips.