We do expect that decline to happen when markets don't respond to good news. We're in a period where we had a bear market already in software, the Mag7 and in crypto. That's already taken out a lot of speculation. Our bet would be markets are actually going to lift through the end of the month, that we're going to actually be positive for March and maybe hit 7300 later in the year, is when we think a bear market might show itself.

It's very confusing time. If I look back at the last two days, oil's $15 higher than it was last week, but the S&P is higher. The market actually is handling higher oil prices better. We think higher oil prices are actually good for the US stock market.

Part of it's a relative. US is an exporter of oil, so we net benefit as an economy from higher oil. Other countries are importers, so the US not only looks better but on a relative growth basis it should outperform which means flows back into the US. As we worry about global growth, when growth is scarce, people buy growth stocks. The US stock market is a growth index. So it's coming out of the rest of the world back into the US. It's a rotation story.

Software has bottomed because we tend to price in the negative risks early, which I think has happened. We've seen the multiples come in. The IGV software ETF index has lost five multiple points. Now the forward PE is 16 times. You're trading this like a cyclical industry now. Out of that universe of 110 stocks many actually have durable businesses. You're getting paid to buy it here at 16 times.

The US economy is going to have some risks for the reasons you describe, which is why I think growth stocks start to look better, which is a lot of tech. The US is a growth index. I'd probably lean towards growth stocks outperform which is not necessarily a broadening trade.

It's not. Bitcoin did basically break on October 10th because that was the biggest deleveraging event in the history of crypto. When gold went up Bitcoin went down. But I think we have gone through a winter where a lot of the speculation and the leverage is gone. This weekend kind of showed Bitcoin is coming back as a store of value because oil prices went up but over the weekend crypto prices actually surged and Bitcoin is holding above 70,000.