This is the biggest disruption in oil production in history, comparable to the 1970s oil shock but at a larger scale. A 'nightmare scenario' would be a long war causing prices to skyrocket, major financial market impacts, and a global recession, but we are not there yet.

A totally chaotic Iran with no control is hard to imagine and would be problematic. The key question is whether any new leadership would abandon revolutionary zeal and become a 'normal country' focused on economic development.

The integrated oil system (production, processing, shipping) is bottled up. Countries are running out of storage, forcing them to cut production, analogous to the storage crisis during COVID.

It is a very big risk. Insurance rates are up (war rates), and despite US offers, drones and explosive speedboats still pose a threat to tankers. Naval escorts aren't fully ready as assets are focused on the war.

The end of the attacks would be the most helpful thing. The objective is to render Iran 'toothless'.

All pressures point to higher prices. Predictions of $100 or $150 are notional. The limit depends on events, and the most important factor is duration—whether this lasts a week or a month.

We have resilience. The US is the world's largest oil producer, providing security. Production is up in Canada and Brazil. Strategic stocks exist, and Saudi Arabia has pipeline alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

In an election year with sensitive gasoline prices, it will be a judgment call to send oil into the market to reassure it. Expects the SPR and reserves from other IEA countries and China to be used.