Do you think that this is going to be potentially an ex-catalyst for the market? There's no question about it.

The options market is telling you right now that investors are very edged for a more challenging outcome in Iran.

The skew - the price of downside puts versus upside calls in the triple cues is as wide as it was during the trough of the April tariff tantrum. And so, very contrarian.

The same thing in terms of bullishness in the oil market - as bullish as it was when oil was $120 a barrel when Russia invaded Ukraine initially.

So the market is screaming military intervention, not diplomatic offering.

Our base case is we think there will be some either off-ramp or limited military engagement.