States that statements about the war ending are similar to those made weeks ago, and we are still in a live, intense conflict with escalation options on the table.

Notes that Iran's statements about ending the war come with conditions the US won't accept, and the ultimate decision rests with Iran's Supreme Leader.

Highlights differential global impacts: Asian economies are scrambling for energy, the US is more cushioned as a net producer, but higher gas prices have an immediate effect on household income everywhere.

Emphasizes that the longer the war lasts, the more intense the implications for every economy, especially those dependent on Middle East energy.

Argues the key risk is Iran leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz post-war, either causing persistent disruption or imposing tolls, leading to a sustained risk premium on oil.

Notes Iran's peace terms include recognition of sovereignty over the Strait, which the US and Gulf countries won't accept, creating a potential flashpoint.