Outlook is more of the same continuation from last year. The Fed is now proactively addressing liquidity concerns by purchasing assets, which is a net positive surprise.

Midterms matter because government will be supportive. Expect corrections (possibly 10%) but they will be bought due to good growth, earnings visibility, Fed position, and policy support.

Employment situation is neutral, not growing rapidly. Labor market bottomed in April. Weak employment data will allow Fed to cut rates and be more supportive.

Base case is double or high-teens earnings growth. Upside risk is multiple expansion if Fed is generous, potentially in second half of year.

Not worried about AI bubble now because capital raising in debt markets has just begun. Too early for credit problems.

For full year, favors consumer goods due to pent-up demand and boost from tax cuts. Also positive on financials due to deregulation and Treasury focus on community/regional banks.

Inflation staying stable or accelerating in some areas is positive for stocks (pricing power) as long as Fed doesn't have to react. Don't want inflation collapse.

Markets are relaxed because Fed is getting in front of liquidity deterioration. Jay Powell has been a good chair, rational, and dealt with crisis well.