Asks Dan Niles about the broader market sell-off, Iran war, higher oil prices, and yields, questioning whether to look past it.
Host (Kelly)
Dan Niles
You can't look past it. The key question is whether the war is short (hopefully a month), medium-term, or long-term. If oil goes above $100, it could cause a global recession.
Points out irony that software/tech has outperformed since the conflict began, which wouldn't have been the obvious trade.
Host (Kelly)
Dan Niles
Wrote that the software rally would continue. Even if you believe software will continue down (like 2000-2002), you still get counter-trend rallies.
Notes Nasdaq 100 is down 1.7% YTD while small/mid-caps are higher, and questions if markets are overly complacent given risk of running out of significant commodities if war continues.
Host (Brian)
Dan Niles
It's not the news, it's the reaction to the news that matters. Price leads the narrative. The market is telling him this will get resolved.
Dan Niles
You need to be hyper-selective and diversified. Utilities, materials, energy, staples, industrials are up 9-25% YTD. You're only suffering if you're in tech.