Asks about BOJ standing pat and pressure to move in April.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
BOJ on normalization path; Middle East energy shock makes April hike more likely.
Asks if BOJ action can support the yen near 160.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
160 is an important level; if yen goes to 162, BOJ may have to act.
Asks if BOJ can do 'one and done' given strong dollar.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Hard to predict due to global uncertainty, but currency is a key sensitivity.
Asks what to do with Japanese assets - sell yen and equities?
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Medium-term trends in Japan are positive; equity markets driven by earnings, not immediately impacted by energy shock.
Asks about biggest concern for Japanese economy.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Japan is vulnerable to Middle East energy supply; higher oil prices affect inflation.
Notes Fed called energy shock transitory, but oil >$100 for weeks; asks about inflation passthrough.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
New information (war) in short time; Powell admitted uncertainty; FOMC minutes show members see both unemployment and inflation as risks.
Asks what to do with US assets.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Outlook for US assets is positive; earnings potential strong; US is net energy exporter, so relative winner from energy shock.
Notes US is exporter but higher gas prices could cause stagflation.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Net impact on US GDP could be positive, but consumers feel pain, becoming a political issue.
Asks about impact of Iran war on Nomura's wholesale/trading business.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Priority is client/employee safety and operational resilience; volatility increases client hedging needs, boosting volumes.
Asks timeframe for material impact if war goes 3-4 months.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
If conflict continues another 3 months, second-order effects manifest: supply chain impacts, due diligence harder, transactions delayed.
Asks about contagion risk in credit markets.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Closer to end of credit cycle, but incidents idiosyncratic; financial system starts from strength.
Asks if situation resembles lead-up to 2008 crisis.
Haslinda Amin
Christopher Wilcox
Does not see anything suggesting headed into 2008-like crisis; constructive outlook for US, Asia, Europe.