Questions whether the next rate move is a foregone conclusion to be down, citing 1990s precedent where cuts were followed by hikes, and asks if policy risks are two-sided.
Paul
Jerome Powell
A rate hike is not anybody's base case; policy estimates are either holding here, cutting a little, or cutting more than a little.
Asks what gives confidence the unemployment rate won't continue rising in 2026, given housing and rate-sensitive sectors still feel restrictive policy.
Paul
Jerome Powell
Current policy in a broad range of plausible neutral estimates should enable the labor market to stabilize or only tick up slightly, without a sharper downturn.