• Introduces George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank, who projects further dollar weakness at a slower pace than 2025. Asks about the DXY's stagnation over the last six months.
    John
  • George Saravelos
    Explains that while the DXY stabilized in summer 2025, dollar weakness rotated from developed to emerging market currencies. Notes the 2025 drop was the second largest on record since Bretton Woods and will be difficult to repeat in 2026.
  • Asks for the reasoning behind the anticipation of further dollar weakness, and how to position for it.
    John
  • George Saravelos
    Thesis is based on cyclical, not structural (dominance) reasons. Two key factors: 1) The dollar is no longer the highest-yielding developed market currency due to Fed cuts, removing a major tailwind. 2) Global growth is broadening beyond the US (Europe fiscal stimulus, Japan potentially joining), leading to growth convergence.
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