Asks if achieving US objectives in Iran will require more than aerial combat.
Kailey Leinz
Heather Conley
The 4-5 week air campaign is doing devastating damage to Iran's missile capability, but transforming a government requires ground forces as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Questions if you can guarantee Iran won't fund terrorism without regime change.
Kailey Leinz
Heather Conley
The nuclear component is essential to the Iranian regime's survival, so eliminating it means the government wouldn't be the same.
Heather Conley
Iran's calculation is to widen the war to impose maximum costs on the global economy and American economy to change US/Israeli posture.
Asks if sustained closure of Strait of Hormuz is likely.
Kailey Leinz
Heather Conley
Iran will try to impose global economic costs as long as they can - question is whether they can sustain missile/drone production for weeks.
Notes President Trump campaigned as isolationist but may be most interventionist in modern history.
Kailey Leinz
Heather Conley
Trump is very interventionist and internationalist, but this conflicts with domestic affordability concerns he'll need to reconcile.