• Ray Dalio
    Do you think that concentration is indicative of a bubble? This is the big question. There's a lot of bubble stuff going on. I have a bubble indicator which is a composite of things that would take too long to explain. The bubble indicator is relatively high. It has to do not only with pricing, but who owns it and how the financing is taking place. It's a relatively high level of a bubble. But bubbles don't really pop until they are popped by tightness of monetary policy and so on. We're going to be more likely to ease rates than to tighten rates. You have a two-part economy. The easing of rates is because most of the economy is weakening. There's a bubble developing at the same time. Monetary policy for both is not going to work because of that divergence. So I think it's probably going to produce more of a bubble. I would think it's probably like maybe 98, 99, 1927, 28 and so on before the crash.
  • Ray Dalio
    Even the issue of money and wealth—you can start a unicorn. For example, you raise $100 million but value it at a billion. Now everyone is a billionaire but nobody actually paid a billion dollars for it. That becomes its own money. There are interesting dynamics about AI, the length of time GPUs last, data centers, and how quickly new GPUs become worthless. There's a lot of risk. Whether or not it's a bubble and when it will burst is unknown, but there's a lot of risk.
  • That was a pretty strong warning from Ray Dalio who has studied history. Comparing this period to 1998, 99 or 1927, 28 before the crash. Mentioned that with rates still falling, that's usually what bursts the bubble, but his bubble indicator is high.
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