Current oil price situation is somewhere between the IMF's baseline and adverse scenarios.

Iran conflict creates stagflationary shock for EU: growth reduced 0.2-0.6 percentage points, inflation could increase over 1 percentage point.

Based on EU simulations of different conflict scenarios and oil price shock magnitudes. Pre-war EU growth forecast was 1.5% for this year and next.

No current physical shortages of oil/gas, but monitoring jet fuel sector closely; engaged in diplomatic efforts to end war and ensure Strait of Hormuz navigation.

Immediate response includes coordinated oil reserve releases with IEA and examining EU energy market design; fiscal response must be temporary, targeted, and not increase oil/gas demand.

Russia emerging as winner from Iran war; EU must continue supporting Ukraine with €90B package and maintain pressure via G7 oil price cap and sanctions.

Now is not time to ease pressure; need Russia serious about peace negotiations and stopping aggression.

Hungary change welcome; new PM willing to support December EU agreement on Ukraine funding, hopes to unblock sanctions package for stronger EU voice.

Still steps away from European army, but EU strengthening defense capabilities, industrial base, interoperability due to Russian threat beyond Ukraine.

Russia openly talking about invading other European countries, requiring serious defense capabilities and deterrence.

EU focused on deriving AI benefits via AI Action Plan (supply/demand sides) while mitigating risks through human-centric approach; sees strong productivity gain potential.