US oil (WTI) hanging between $95-$100, but Brent crude seeing all the volatility. Middle East scrambling for supplies. Strait of Hormuz traffic down to single digits from normal 150 ships - rate of change in ship traffic will be inversely correlated with energy prices.

Every $1 move in WTI costs consumers 2.5+ cents at pump. High energy prices become tax on everyone, causing trickle effect to groceries/agricultural prices, leading to growth concerns and sticky inflation that reaffirms Fed policy.

Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global energy needs. Iran's retaliatory attacks on specific energy infrastructure (including LNG regions) causing price shocks to upside.

Two scenarios: 1) If oil prices come down (signaling progress), inflation expectations fall, rate cuts slide back in, dollar and yields come off, commodities rise. 2) If 'higher for longer' shock continues and equities hemorrhage, recession concerns could price in >2 cuts due to global growth worries.

Fed can't cut rates with energy prices and inflation this high - would fuel more inflation. Powell stuck between rock and hard place.

Gold down $330, futures selling off. Central banks concerned about inflation/energy security may shift from buying gold to boosting strategic petroleum reserves.

Gold turned into growth story - extra money going there instead of currencies/bonds. But large participants (central banks) shifting focus to defense/energy needs removes structural support. Gold miners particularly vulnerable due to high fuel costs.

Wheat, corn, sugar (ethanol-related), cotton performing well. Soybeans problematic due to China dependence - Trump/Xi Jinping discussion delay caused limit down move.