Record earnings with strong deal environment hitting escape velocity, similar to 2013-14 post-GFC period. AI infrastructure investments delivering great results with strong momentum.
Bloomberg survey shows private capital investors worry about macroeconomic or rate instability derailing strong year.
Interviewer
John Gray
Overall picture looks pretty good with strong economy, 9% revenue growth in private equity companies, cost of capital coming down, spreads at low levels, and AI-driven productivity boom ahead.
How to balance AI investment opportunities with bubble fears and overextension concerns like Microsoft's CapEx worries.
Interviewer
John Gray
Infrastructure investments with long-term contracts provide downside protection while selectively capturing AI upside. Biggest risk is disruption risk, not bubble risk.
Which portfolio companies or industries face AI disruption risks?
Interviewer
John Gray
Higher risk in lower-value IT services, intermediary businesses with agentic commerce. Every deal memo now includes AI risk assessment.
Will AI slow talent growth at Blackstone like Goldman Sachs expects?
Interviewer
John Gray
AI creates efficiencies (software engineers 2x efficient, cyber monitoring 30% better) and will lead to higher margins across industries.
How does policy disruption from Washington (shutdowns, housing pronouncements, tariffs) impact investment process?
Interviewer
John Gray
Take long-term approach, be patient as issues resolve. Regulatory environment for M&A has been positive, allowing more energy development.
Does market need more clarity from White House on housing policy given short-term impact on Blackstone shares?
Interviewer
John Gray
Housing affordability crisis driven by lack of supply, not institutional ownership. Focus on big picture: US economic strength, productivity gains, cost of capital coming down, rates coming down, inflation coming down.