This might be some short-term euphoria because IEA says it would take about two years to get back to normal, especially for LNG markets.

We've seen about 80 oil and gas facilities damaged in the region and there's a backlog. We'll see what happens with markets once euphoria dies down and we see what's actually going to happen with negotiations.

We've seen mixed messaging on whether negotiations will continue. Iran says it will open Strait of Hormuz, but Trump says he'll continue blockade on Iranian ports and vessels.

It's really unclear what's going to happen. Right now we're in a very fragile ceasefire.

There are a lot of details to be worked out on enrichment. If Iranian regime says it will freeze nuclear program, that doesn't differ from its points in the past.

There are complex technical questions about enrichment and enriched material. There are spoilers and ways Iran could continue to make money through negotiations.

Iran now knows it has leverage not just over US but global economy. We haven't seen Houthis come into play yet. A lot can go wrong.

This is the biggest geopolitical loss of this war. Trump says Iran will never close Strait again, but Iran closed it because US and Israel went to war with Iran.

Now Iran knows it has that leverage. That's a real geopolitical loss for US, Gulf countries, and rest of world that this now probably more extreme regime knows it can do this.

Iranians probably know how to manipulate details so Trump has some kind of win to save face, but saving face superficially doesn't solve original problem of Iran's nuclear program.

There are political reasons for Trump to walk away or have superficial agreement to lower gasoline prices for midterm elections.

This will alter many countries' contingency plans. We'll see increasing coalitions of the willing, some without US.

With closure of Strait of Hormuz, we'll talk more about alternatives like pipelines and other countries creating coalitions to secure resources. This isn't sign of deal done and back to normal.