Asks about findings from tracking Kevin Warsh's sentiment change since his time as a Fed governor during the Great Financial Crisis.
Carol
Neil Dutta
Found Warsh has been hawkish throughout his public career until about six months ago when interviewing for the Fed job for a president who calls himself a low interest rate person.
Asks if the president's attention to financial markets influenced his choice of a Fed chair the markets would respect.
Speaker2
Neil Dutta
The Fed is bigger than any one person, driven by consensus, with strong experts like Lori Logan and Beth Hammack who won't be intimidated by Warsh. This limits market anxiety.
Asks about the outlook given Senator Tom Tillis won't back a nominee until probes into Jay Powell are settled.
Carol
Neil Dutta
Typically takes 90 days from nomination to confirmation. If Tillis sticks to his guns, the longer it drags on, the more it becomes a political liability.
Asks if Warsh would be a quieter Fed chairman, reducing forward guidance cues.
Speaker2
Neil Dutta
Warsh is a critic of forward guidance and discretionary policy, advocating for a rules-based framework.
Asks if he agrees the Fed talks too much.
Speaker2
Neil Dutta
Sometimes yes, but notes incongruities in Warsh's position: his 'golden age' thesis for cutting rates is itself an appeal to discretion.
Neil Dutta
Forward guidance helps move the entire yield curve. Without it, term premiums rise, making longer-term interest rates higher.
Asks about the connection to Stanley Druckenmiller and the idea of a 'shadow Fed chair'.
Speaker2
Neil Dutta
The enthusiasm for a Treasury-Fed axis is misplaced. Questions the causality of QE: was it to bail out the government or because the government wasn't acting?