Oil prices elevated around $96 WTI; asks if market underestimating oil prices and equity market impact.
Diane King Hall
Jack Janasiewicz
Futures curve in backwardation with longer-dated contracts drifting higher, suggesting market repricing higher-for-longer oil scenario.
Jack Janasiewicz
One-year inflation expectations drifting higher but forward expectations stable; concern would grow if inflation expectations backdrop changes.
PPI came in hotter than expected with upward trend; asks if worried about inflation.
Diane King Hall
Jack Janasiewicz
Higher-for-longer oil will seep through broader economy; bigger concern is weaker consumer facing softer labor market and spending pullback.
Economists lowering growth projections, increasing recession odds to 20-30%; asks what signals he's watching.
Diane King Hall
Jack Janasiewicz
Increasing recession odds puts headwind on cyclical trade; rotating to growth/tech as defensive play since growth becomes scarce.
Jack Janasiewicz
Swapping into equally weighted tech to dilute AI CapEx concerns; broader tech has cheaper valuations, above-average EPS growth, fat margins, good balance sheets.
Asks about Mag 7 perspective, noting Nvidia stuck in range.
Diane King Hall
Jack Janasiewicz
Concerns over AI CapEx spend creating headwind for Mag 7 upside; broader tech space preferred for investment.
Fed expected to pause; asks if Fed stuck between rock and hard place.
Diane King Hall
Jack Janasiewicz
Fed in unenviable position with risks of higher core inflation and rising unemployment; best option is to sit on hands, be data-dependent.
Asks about preference for EM over international developed, given war repercussions.
Diane King Hall
Jack Janasiewicz
Prefers EM (Latin America, China) through terms-of-trade lens as net energy exporters benefiting from higher prices; Europe as net importer faces headwinds.