Current situation is 'demented' - US closing strait again after Iran allowed some flow. Pain is in Asia, South Pacific, anyone dependent on oil, plus fertilizers, aluminum, food. European airports running out of jet fuel in 2-3 weeks.

Compares to six weeks ago when strait was open, then closed after US attack, now partially open with 3 VLCCs out (2 Saudi, 1 Iraq).

Blockade details unclear - may stop vessels paying Iran in yuan/bitcoin, or only Iranian vessels. If targeting Iranian oil to China, risks confrontation with Chinese navy, transforming regional into global fight.

Traders relaxed thinking it's 'too crazy' to implement fully.

Absolutely not reflective. Should be $140-150. Pressure on Trump not to implement as Britain wants participation, Australia refuses, calling it 'economic suicide'.

Surprised China, Korea, Singapore not making noise about energy needs.

Current loss 7-12M bpd. If blockade implemented, lose 12M bpd permanently. Gulf ships 20M bpd, Saudi alternative via Yanbu brings net to 13-15M bpd after infrastructure. Plus LNG, fertilizers. Global GDP from region reduced 10-15%.

No real alternatives - would need new pipelines, Red Sea controlled by Houthis.

Japan and Korea biggest, no alternatives. Singapore as refining center, Australia running out of diesel, Pacific islands exposed.

Like pipeline shut off. Refiners have no pricing power - must pay market prices.

Demand destruction needed, requiring oil at $150-200. Airlines already shutting planes. Asia getting punched hard but countries not making sufficient noise.

US has pricing power as net energy exporter - Japan, Korea, India looking to US for oil.

Everything changed, resetting risk expectations. No one expected this. Exposure to Middle East remains high with no option. More renewables, refinery destruction means products higher.

Example: Singapore taxi driver diesel from $1.80 to nearly $5 per liter.

Arbitrage and volatility. Professional trading houses having tough time. Traders patch supply - if Korea needs cargo not from Gulf, find from Africa, US, Latin America.

Much higher than pre-war $65. If Trump keeps actions, over $100. Pressure on him to throttle back, so likely closer to $100 but below.